一、评价依据
The comprehensive strength of a baijiu enterprise is hard to measure with a single indicator: some enterprises are large in scale but weak in growth, some are moderate in scale yet possess thousand-year-old fermentation pits and a proprietary aroma type, and some are not large in volume yet contribute substantial producing-region tax revenue. Therefore, this algorithm adopts the CPPPS four-dimensional framework (Scale + Quality + Innovation + Contribution) and adapts it to the characteristics of the baijiu industry:
白酒企业综合实力难以用单一指标衡量:有的企业规模庞大但增长乏力,有的企业规模适中却拥有千年窖池与独门香型,有的企业体量不大却贡献着可观的产区税收。因此,本算法采用 CPPPS 四维框架(规模 + 质量 + 创新 + 贡献),并为其适配白酒行业特征:
- 规模——营业收入:营收是企业市场占有与经营体量的直接体现,是行业排名的第一底仓。
- 质量——净利润、市值:净利润反映盈利能力(白酒高毛利、强现金流是质量核心);市值反映资本市场对企业价值的定价,二者共同刻画"赚钱能力"。
- 创新——品牌历史、工艺底蕴:白酒的"创新"不同于科技行业的研发投入,其护城河在于时间——越陈的窖池、越悠久的香型工艺、越深的品牌历史越难被复制。故以品牌历史(可考成名史/贡酒史)与工艺底蕴(香型开创性、非遗技艺、古窖池)刻画。
- 贡献——税收:白酒是典型的高税行业,消费税在生产环节征收、归属产地财政,是贵州、四川等产区县市的重要税源,此为 CPPPS 特色维度。
二、数学模型
Each indicator is first min-max normalized into [0,1] (to remove scale differences). For indicators spanning orders of magnitude—revenue, market capitalization, taxation, and brand history—the base-10 logarithm is taken before normalization, to prevent leading enterprises from monopolizing the index while preserving the gradient between orders of magnitude:
各指标先经 min-max 归一化映射到 [0,1](消除量纲差异)。对营收、市值、税收、品牌历史等跨数量级的指标取以 10 为底的对数再归一化,避免头部企业垄断指数、保留数量级之间的梯度:
指标′ = (指标 − 指标min) / (指标max − 指标min)
对数处理:营收′、市值′、税收′、历史′ = log₁₀(原值) 后归一化
综合指数 = 100 × (0.20·营收′ + 0.20·净利润′ + 0.15·市值′ + 0.15·品牌历史′ + 0.10·工艺底蕴′ + 0.20·税收′)
The six weights always sum to 1.0, distributed across four dimensions: Scale 0.20, Quality 0.35 (net profit 0.20 + market capitalization 0.15), Innovation 0.25 (brand history 0.15 + craftsmanship heritage 0.10), and Contribution 0.20. Net profit may be negative (for loss-making enterprises), so it is linearly normalized rather than log-transformed; craftsmanship heritage is a 0–100 score and is also linearly normalized.
六项权重之和恒为 1.0,分属四维:规模 0.20、质量 0.35(净利润 0.20 + 市值 0.15)、创新 0.25(品牌历史 0.15 + 工艺底蕴 0.10)、贡献 0.20。净利润可能为负(亏损企业),故不取对数而线性归一化;工艺底蕴为 0–100 评分,亦线性归一化。
三、指标与权重依据
| 维度 | 指标 | 方向 | 权重 | 处理 | 依据 |
| 规模 | 营业收入 | 正向 | 0.20 | 对数 | 市场占有与体量;《财富》口径、年报 |
| 质量 | 净利润 | 正向 | 0.20 | 线性 | 盈利能力;年报归母净利润 |
| 质量 | 市值 | 正向 | 0.15 | 对数 | 资本市场价值定价 |
| 创新 | 品牌历史 | 正向 | 0.15 | 对数 | 老字号护城河;文献/考古可考成名史 |
| 创新 | 工艺底蕴 | 正向 | 0.10 | 线性 | 香型开创性、非遗技艺、古窖池 |
| 贡献 | 税收 | 正向 | 0.20 | 对数 | 消费税+增值税+所得税;产地财政贡献 |
Weight-design logic: Quality (0.35) carries the highest weight, because the core competitiveness of baijiu lies in profitability and brand premium; Scale (0.20) and Contribution (0.20) are equally weighted—Scale is volume and Contribution is social value; within Innovation (0.25), brand history (0.15) is higher than craftsmanship heritage (0.10), reflecting the industry essence that "time cannot be replicated". The logarithmic treatment reasonably compresses the gap between "Moutai's 170-billion-yuan revenue" and "Wuliangye's 89-billion-yuan revenue", preventing a single giant from monopolizing the ranking.
权重设计逻辑:质量(0.35)权重最高,因为白酒的核心竞争力在于盈利与品牌溢价;规模(0.20)与贡献(0.20)并重——规模是体量、贡献是社会价值;创新(0.25)中品牌历史(0.15)高于工艺底蕴(0.10),体现"时间不可复制"的行业本质。对数处理使"茅台 1700 亿营收"与"五粮液 890 亿营收"的差距被合理压缩,避免单一巨头垄断名次。
四、数据来源与局限性
Revenue, net profit, market capitalization, and taxation all use approximate values from public common knowledge, referring to each listed company's annual reports, China Alcoholic Drinks Association industry data, and public tax/statistical calibers, marked "subject to official sources". Brand history uses the approximate number of years of verifiable fame/tribute-liquor/fermentation-pit history (such as Fenjiu's light-aroma fame history, Gujing Gongjiu's "Jiu Yun Chun Jiu" tribute history, Luzhou Laojiao's 1573 National Treasure fermentation pits, and the Swellfun site dating from the late Yuan and early Ming dynasties); craftsmanship heritage is a 0–100 subjective score based on aroma-type pioneering, national-level intangible cultural heritage techniques, and ancient fermentation pits, and thus contains some subjectivity.
营收、净利润、市值、税收均采用公开常识近似值,参照各上市公司年度报告、中国酒业协会行业数据与税务/统计公开口径,标注"以官方为准"。品牌历史采用可考的成名史/贡酒史/窖池史近似年数(如汾酒清香成名史、古井贡酒"九酝春酒"贡酒史、泸州老窖 1573 国宝窖池、水井坊元末明初遗址等);工艺底蕴为基于香型开创性、国家级非遗技艺与古窖池的 0–100 主观评分,存在一定主观性。
Limitations: ① the approximate values contain errors, especially for small-cap enterprises whose data fluctuate considerably; ② Shunxin Agriculture (Niulanshan) is measured on its baijiu-business caliber, which differs from the listed company's overall caliber; ③ craftsmanship heritage is a subjective score; ④ dynamic indicators such as brand growth momentum, channel inventory, and internationalization are not included. The ranking is for research reference only and does not constitute investment advice.
局限:①近似值存在误差,尤其小市值企业数据波动较大;②顺鑫农业(牛栏山)为其白酒业务口径,与上市公司整体口径有差异;③工艺底蕴为主观评分;④未纳入品牌增长动能、渠道库存、国际化等动态指标。排名仅供研究参考,不构成投资建议。
五、参考文献
- 各白酒上市公司年度报告(营收、净利润、市值口径)。
- 中国酒业协会:《中国酒业年度发展报告》。
- 贾思勰《齐民要术》:九酝酒法、制曲与酿酒工艺(古井贡酒历史依据)。
- 杜甫《野望》:"射洪春酒寒仍绿"(舍得/沱牌历史依据)。
- 《尚书·酒诰》《诗经》:"为此春酒,以介眉寿"(中国酒文化源流)。
- 泸州老窖 1573 国宝窖池群、水井街酒坊遗址(全国重点文物保护单位)。
- 茅台酒、汾酒、泸州老窖等传统酿制技艺(国家级非物质文化遗产名录)。
- 国家税务总局、财政部:白酒消费税、增值税相关政策与征收口径。
- 国家统计局:规模以上工业、食品工业统计公报。